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Omitted Variable Effects in Logistic Regression

Introduction I would like to illustrate a way which omitted variables interfere in logistic regression inference (or coefficient estimation). These effects are different than what is seen in linear regression, and possibly different than some expectations or intuitions. Our Example Data Let’s start with a data example in R. # […]

A Time Series Apologia

I would like to share a new article on some of the methods and pitfalls of time series forecasting: “A Time Series Apologia”. In it I work the seemingly simple problem of forecasting a noisy copy of sin(t). The purpose of the article is to demonstrate using ARIMA methods, and […]

Y-Aware PCA

We have had some trouble with some articles being damaged or hard to access in the Win Vector blog. I (John Mount) do want to apologize for that. In particular the graphs are missing for Dr. Nina Zumel’s wonderful y-aware Pricipal Components regression series. The complete R .md and .Rmd […]

Working in CRAN’s World

Part of the deal of having a package up on CRAN is: at any time one may be sent an automated email like the following. Dear maintainer, Please see the problems shown on URL. Please correct before TODAY+14DAYS to safely retain your package on CRAN. The CRAN Team If this […]

Exploring the XI Correlation Coefficient

Nina Zumel Recently, we’ve been reading about a new correlation coefficient, \(\xi\) (“xi”), which was introduced by Professor Sourav Chatterjee in his paper, “A New Coefficient of Correlation”. The \(\xi\) coefficient has the following properties: If \(y\) is a function of \(x\), then \(\xi\) goes to 1 asymptotically as \(n\) […]

Kelly Thorp Betting

I demonstrate a Kelly/Thorp betting system for the simple card game of guessing if the next card from a standard deck is red or black. I have a video of the play here. And a derivation of the betting strategy in R is here. A derivation of the proof you […]