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Upcoming Talk on Probability Models

Nina Zumel and John Mount will be speaking at the online University of San Francisco Seminar Series in Data Science! How and why to use probability models to outperform decision rules Friday April 30, 2021 12:30pm – 2pm Pacific Time See here for full details and to RSVP In this […]

Kelly Thorp Betting

I demonstrate a Kelly/Thorp betting system for the simple card game of guessing if the next card from a standard deck is red or black. I have a video of the play here. And a derivation of the betting strategy in R is here. A derivation of the proof you […]

A Gruesome Example of Bayes’ Law

Here is an incredibly clear, but unfortunately gruesome, example of a variation of Bayes’ Law. A good teachable point. Consider the recent CDC article “Community and Close Contact Exposures Associated with COVID-19 Among Symptomatic Adults ≥18 Years in 11 Outpatient Health Care Facilities.” It states: Adults with positive SARS-CoV-2 test […]