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Vector Packing Vacation

Just coming back from a vacation where I got some side-time to work some recreational math problems. One stood out, packing vector sums by re-ordering. I feel you don’t deeply understand a proof until you try to work examples and re-write it, so here (for me) it is: Picking Vectors […]

A Time Series Apologia

I would like to share a new article on some of the methods and pitfalls of time series forecasting: “A Time Series Apologia”. In it I work the seemingly simple problem of forecasting a noisy copy of sin(t). The purpose of the article is to demonstrate using ARIMA methods, and […]

The Sell ∀ ∃ as ∃ ∀ Scam

Artificial intelligence, like machine learning before it, is making big money off what I call the “sell ∀ ∃ as ∃ ∀ scam.” The scam works as follows. Build a system that solves problems, but with an important user-facing control. For AI systems like GPT-X this is “prompt engineering.” For […]

Doing Better than the Average

The standard way to estimate the an expected value of a population from a sample of values v1 … vn is to compute the average (1/n) sumi = 1…nvi. It is well known in statistics that for grouped data, there are other estimators that can have smaller expected square error. […]

How Much Data Do You Need?

Introduction A common question in analytics, statistics, and data science projects is: how much data do you need? This question actually has very specific and clear answers! A first good answer is “it is good to have a lot.” Let’s dig deeper and get some additional more detailed quantitative answers. […]