I demonstrate a Kelly/Thorp betting system for the simple card game of guessing if the next card from a standard deck is red or black.

I have a video of the play here.

And a derivation of the betting strategy in R is here.

A derivation of the proof you can’t build this sort of system for fair coin flip games is introduced here: When Profitable Betting Systems are not Possible.

Categories: Tutorials

Tagged as: betting gambling Kelly Criterion probability R rstats Statistics Thorp

jmount

Data Scientist and trainer at Win Vector LLC. One of the authors of Practical Data Science with R.